Save Our Pak
Iran’s top leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has returned to public view after the recent war with Israel. But experts say he now has a harder time keeping full control over the country even though he’s ruled it for more than 35 years, as Reported By Save Our Pak News Channel On Friday.
After being silent for many days, Khamenei finally appeared in a video on Thursday. In it, he called the end of the 12-day war with Israel a “victory” and wanted to show that he is still alive. But his voice was weak and slow, and he didn’t speak with the strong energy people were used to.
Normally, before the war, he would speak live in front of big crowds. But this time, the video was filmed quietly with just a curtain and a photo of Ayatollah Khomeini in the background. This made some people think he might still be hiding. Israel had earlier warned that they wouldn’t hesitate to kill him if they got the chance.
Israel’s Defence Minister, Israel Katz, said on Thursday that if their military had found Khamenei during the war, they would have taken him out. He told the public radio that their army had searched a lot but didn’t find him.
Even though the war didn’t bring down Iran’s system of government, Israel did show its military strength. It also proved how deeply it had gathered information by hitting top people close to Khamenei with precise attacks.
This war added to the list of problems Khamenei has faced over the past year. These include the weakening of groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, the fall of Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad (an ally of Iran), and Iran’s own troubles like high prices and power shortages.
Thomas Juneau, a professor at the University of Ottawa, said the system isn’t about to collapse, but it is weaker now than it has been since the early years of the 1979 revolution. He added that the power and image of Khamenei have clearly gone down.
Even though no one is openly challenging his rule yet, many believe he has lost respect and is blamed for many of Iran’s failures. Khamenei is now 86 years old. He also has health problems due to a 1981 attack in Tehran that paralyzed his right arm. He never tried to hide this disability.
Inside Iran, people still don’t talk much about who will come after him. But experts outside the country often mention his son, Mojtaba, as someone who could take over though it’s not guaranteed.
Arash Azizi from Boston University said Khamenei looked very weak in his latest speech and didn’t sound like the powerful speaker he once was. He added that power in Iran is slowly moving to other groups and that the fight over who will replace him is going to get stronger.
Khamenei has handled big problems in the past too. During the protests in 2022 and 2023 sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini he used strong tactics to stay in control. Mahsa had been arrested for not following Iran’s dress rules, and her death caused huge anger. Hundreds were arrested in the crackdown that followed.
Some reports from media like The New York Times and Iran International say that Khamenei stayed in a secret bunker during the war. They also say he didn’t use digital devices, worried that he might be tracked and targeted. Iran International even claimed that he wasn’t involved in the peace talks, which were managed by Iran’s national security council and the new president, Masoud Pezeshkian. However, this has not been confirmed officially.
Jason Brodsky, from the group United Against Nuclear Iran, said Khamenei looked weak and didn’t seem in touch with the real situation. He also disagreed with Khamenei’s statement that Iran’s nuclear program was safe from damage.
Still, Jason said he doesn’t fully believe the idea that Khamenei is no longer in charge. He thinks Iran’s leaders will now discuss how to fix their problems, but in the end, decisions still come from Khamenei.
